Kathmandu— Ukrainian forces have announced the recapture of 745 square kilometers (287 square miles) of territory in the southern Dnipropetrovsk region, liberating 26 settlements, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The operation, which reportedly killed nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers, has pushed Russian forces back over regional borders into Donetsk and Zaporizhia; however, this success is occurring alongside a surge in Russian ballistic missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities, exacerbated by a shortage of interceptor missiles for air defense systems.

Territorial Gains and Counteroffensive Success

President Zelenskyy stated the Dnipropetrovsk operation was carried out “exactly as it was determined,” marking a significant achievement for Ukrainian forces. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conservatively estimates Ukraine has reclaimed at least 627 square kilometers in the area, noting that this demonstrates the Ukrainian army’s ability to both defend and launch successful offensives. Former commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii, who planned the operation, affirmed it proved Ukraine's capacity to seize the initiative and liberate its land.

The ISW also assessed a net loss of 233 square kilometers for Russia this year across the entire front line, despite ongoing Russian offensives in the eastern Donetsk region. These gains have come at a substantial cost, with reported Russian casualties reaching 39,000 in June and nearly 43,000 in July – the highest figures since January 2025.

Shifting Russian Tactics and Missile Production

As Ukrainian forces gain ground, Russia has altered its missile strategy, increasing the use of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy military intelligence chief, explained that Russia stopped producing missiles Ukraine had become adept at intercepting and instead focused on building more Iskander-M ballistic and S-400 hypersonic missiles. The latter, originally designed as a surface-to-air missile, has been repurposed for ballistic trajectories and proven effective.

Russian missile production is currently exceeding targets, with over 100 ballistic and hypersonic missiles produced monthly. Skibitskyi indicated Russia may have dipped into stockpiles to launch 56 of these missiles in the first week of August, planning to replenish them for a large-scale winter campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure – which suffered up to $70 billion in damage last winter.

Drone Warfare and Ukrainian Innovation

One key factor contributing to Ukraine's battlefield success is its increased production of short-range, first-person view (FPV) drones. Ukraine now fields 16 drones for every 10 deployed by Russia, with these drones accounting for over 70 percent of Russian casualties in June and July. Furthermore, Ukraine has been increasingly successful in disarming Russian FPV drones.

The country also downed more than 40,000 Russian drones in July – a significant increase from the approximately 28,000 downed in May. Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have destroyed almost a third of Russia's refining capacity this year and targeted military logistics, sinking or disabling 218 ships.

Potential Escalation and Future Threats

Intelligence suggests Russia may be planning a major strike on Kyiv before Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24. Reports indicate North Korea is sending up to 120 ballistic missiles to Russia's Voronezh region, near Ukraine, with construction underway for barracks to house them. Mykhailo Fedorov, former defense minister, suggested that Ukraine should accelerate production of its own ballistic missile system and engage in “counter-ballistic warfare,” stating, “The Russians must understand that a few minutes after the launch, the entire team that launches the missile must die from our ballistic missile.”

Ukrainian officials continue to appeal to allies for increased air defense support as Russia intensifies its attacks. The coming weeks are expected to be critical in determining the trajectory of the conflict and Ukraine’s ability to defend against escalating threats.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.