Kathmandu— Ukraine alleges that North Korea is preparing to significantly increase its military support for Russia in the ongoing war against Ukraine, with plans to deploy between 30,000 and 50,000 troops to Russian territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy first raised concerns in late July about a potential influx of additional North Korean personnel, following a defense pact signed between Moscow and Pyongyang in 2024 that led to an initial deployment of around 14,000-15,000 soldiers. The anticipated surge would reportedly allow Russia to redistribute its forces to the Ukrainian front lines while North Korean troops take over defensive duties in regions like Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod.

Growing Military Cooperation

Russia and North Korea formalized their defense cooperation with a pact signed in the summer of 2024, quickly followed by the dispatch of North Korean combat personnel to Russia. Initial estimates suggest between 14,000 and 15,000 troops were deployed, primarily stationed in the Kursk region, along with an additional 6,000 sappers and construction workers. Beyond manpower, North Korea has also supplied Russia with substantial quantities of artillery rounds and ballistic missiles, according to intelligence from both South Korea and Ukraine.

Casualties and Battlefield Experience

South Korean intelligence estimates that approximately 6,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. Despite initial losses, reports indicate that North Korean troops have adapted to the battlefield conditions and demonstrated an aggressive fighting style praised by Russian officials. Han Ki-bum, a former deputy director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, noted that while Ukraine initially reported 30,000 additional personnel, estimates rose to 50,000 without detailed evidence. He also stated North Korea has sufficient manpower for such a deployment without weakening its own defenses.

Potential Troop Roles and Capabilities

Analysts suggest the incoming North Korean troops could relieve Russian forces from defensive duties in key regions, freeing them up for offensive operations in Ukraine. Ahn Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, believes Pyongyang would send elite special operations troops, skilled in reconnaissance, surprise attacks, and ambushes. If a larger contingent of 30,000 is deployed, it would likely include infantry, engineers, construction workers, and even female medical personnel. There have been recent reports of North Korean women traveling to Russia, though their specific roles remain unclear.

Long-Term Implications for Pyongyang

While the conflict in Ukraine provides a valuable training ground for the North Korean military—allowing soldiers to gain experience with modern warfare and test weapons under real battlefield conditions—it also carries potential domestic risks. According to Ahn Chan-il, surviving soldiers could return home with valuable combat knowledge, potentially becoming instructors or junior officers. However, a significant increase in casualties could create social unrest within North Korea, turning the “battlefield experience into a domestic burden.” He explained that while a limited number of deaths can be framed as heroic sacrifice, tens of thousands of casualties could lead to widespread grief and hardship.

Ukrainian officials continue to monitor the situation closely, urging increased cooperation from South Korea in areas such as air defense and drone technology. The potential deployment of additional North Korean troops remains unconfirmed but is viewed with growing concern by regional analysts.

(With inputs from DW)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.