Kathmandu— Incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is maintaining a slight lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in advance of the country’s high-stakes presidential election, though recent polling suggests the race is tightening. A new Quaest survey released Friday shows Lula with 43 percent support in a simulated runoff, compared to 40 percent for Bolsonaro – effectively a statistical tie considering the poll's margin of error. The narrowing gap comes as Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the standard-bearer for Brazil’s right after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running due to previous convictions.

Polling Data Shows Tightening Race

The Quaest survey published on Friday reveals a decrease in Lula's lead since an earlier poll conducted on August 5. That previous survey had Lula ahead by five percentage points (44 percent to 39 percent), while the latest data indicates a mere three-point difference. In a first-round scenario, Lula currently leads with 38 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 31 percent. Other candidates Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each garnered 4 percent support, while Romeu Zema received 2 percent.

Bolsonaro’s Candidacy Following Disqualification

Flavio Bolsonaro is carrying the mantle for Brazil's right-wing after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was deemed ineligible to run. The elder Bolsonaro faced rulings from Brazil’s top electoral court finding he abused his power while in office and a separate conviction related to attempts to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

Lula Emphasizes Sovereignty and Resource Control

Launching his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, Lula positioned himself as a defender of Brazilian “sovereignty.” He advocated for increased defence spending and pledged to protect Brazil's reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control. "I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country," he said. Lula also warned China, the US, and France against accessing Brazil’s mineral wealth without respecting its sovereignty, stating, “In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong.”

Concerns Over Potential Foreign Interference

Lula has voiced concerns about potential interference in the election from foreign powers, specifically referencing United States President Donald Trump. In June, Lula directly warned Trump against meddling in Brazil’s presidential race, asserting that Brazilian elections are a domestic matter and American elections should remain within U.S. jurisdiction.

With two months remaining until the vote, the election is proving to be highly competitive, though Lula maintains a narrow advantage as the campaign enters its final phase.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.