Kathmandu— Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan recently signed a mutual defence pact in Mecca, prompting speculation that these close US partners are seeking alternatives to American security guarantees. The move comes as US President Donald Trump encourages allies to increase their own defense spending and has signaled potential shifts in Washington’s regional strategy. While analysts debate whether the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” can truly replace reliance on the United States, it reflects a growing desire for self-reliance among key Middle Eastern powers and a reevaluation of existing security arrangements.

Trump's Response and Regional Implications

US President Donald Trump expressed approval of the Mecca pact, stating that it demonstrates the Middle East’s increasing ability to defend itself. This reaction aligns with his long-held position that allies should contribute more to their own defense, rather than relying on American resources. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump for what he described as leadership that averted a “nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.”

The timing of Trump's statement coincides with efforts to persuade allies to increase defence spending; NATO members agreed to double their GDP target to 5 percent by 2035 under sustained pressure from the US president. He also announced reductions in joint military exercises with South Korea, citing cost and relations with North Korea.

Turkey's Strategic Motivations

Analysts suggest Turkiye’s involvement stems from a broader desire to assert its role as a regional security provider. Betul Dogan-Akkas, assistant professor of international relations at Ankara University, noted that Arab Gulf states have lost deterrence since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran without consulting them, prompting a need to re-establish deterrence independently. Erdogan is signalling his ability to support a regional security complex amid perceived shortcomings in global hegemony.

Gokhan Ereli, an international relations expert at Istanbul’s Ibn Haldun University, highlighted that while Gulf states fear gaps in the US security umbrella, Ankara doubts it ever existed for them, characterizing the pact as “a hedge with Turkish characteristics” and a move towards post-dependence on the United States.

Assessing the Pact's Capabilities

The Mecca agreement mirrors NATO’s Article 5, stating that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. However, assistance requests would be subject to each nation specifying its needs – intelligence, logistics, or troops. Mansoor Ahmed, an honorary lecturer at the Australian National University, believes this discretion reflects a conditional commitment rather than automatic intervention.

Reza Khanzadeh, a Middle East analyst at George Mason University, points out that a similar Saudi-Pakistan pact did not escalate conflict after attacks from Iran and Houthis earlier this year. Umer Karim, an associate fellow at the King Faisal Center for Islamic Research and Studies, emphasizes that while it’s a new institutional development in the region, it doesn't fully replace existing capabilities or US presence.

A Layered Deterrence

While the pact aims to project unity without provoking Iran, its current capacity falls short of matching the roughly 50,000 US troops stationed across the Middle East. The success of the agreement hinges on the security needs of member states, the extent of their trilateral alignment, and the nature of any threats they face.

Karim suggests it should be viewed as adding a separate layer of deterrence rather than replacing the United States entirely, acknowledging the structural reliance of Gulf states on US support. The pact represents a genuine institutional first since the era of the Baghdad Pact (CENTO), though its long-term effectiveness remains to be seen.

The Mecca agreement marks a significant development in regional security dynamics, but its ability to fully replace US influence remains uncertain. Analysts anticipate continued US involvement, albeit with increased expectations for local partners to contribute more to their own defense.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.