Kathmandu— The United Kingdom’s Met Office has issued a warning that this year's El Niño event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century, with forecasts predicting sea surface temperatures will rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit). This unprecedented warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is anticipated to drive an increased risk of extreme weather events worldwide, including droughts, high temperatures, and intense rainfall, impacting regions already grappling with historic climate challenges. The Met Office issued its statement on Friday, highlighting the potential for 2026 to far exceed recent experiences with El Niño’s global climatic influences.

Unprecedented Temperature Rise

Typically, El Niño events cause sea surface temperatures to rise between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius. However, current forecasts predict record values exceeding 3C in the coming months. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the situation as “unprecedented,” stating he had never observed such an intense El Niño signal in their forecasts. He further explained to the BBC that a three-degree rise is “unheard-of in modern climate records.”

Global Weather Impacts

El Niño is triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures and significantly influences global weather patterns. The Met Office anticipates wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe, including the UK, as autumn and winter approach in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong effects are expected across the Tropics, with forecasts indicating severe droughts in regions like South America and the West Pacific.

Current Climate Context

The warning comes amidst a year already marked by extreme climate events globally. Wildfires have devastated over 200,000 hectares in Indonesia, while southwestern Europe has experienced widespread blazes, displacing at least 325,000 people across Spain and France. Several countries are also currently battling severe drought conditions. In mid-August, the UK recorded its hottest day of the year with a temperature of 38.1C (100.5F) in west London.

Potential for Record Heat

The Met Office warns that combined with human-induced climate change, this El Niño event is “very likely” to make 2026 the hottest year on record globally. This prediction underscores the growing concern among scientists about the accelerating pace of global warming and its potentially catastrophic consequences.

Forecasters will continue to monitor the development of El Niño closely in the coming months, providing updated predictions as new data becomes available.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.