Kathmandu— Repeated assertions that Ukraine is on the verge of achieving a decisive military victory over Russia are reminiscent of being stuck in a time loop, according to Steve Gill, a former White House official who served in the office of the US Trade Representative under Presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton. The latest predictions followed an increase in Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure, while Russia responded with intensified attacks that have disrupted Ukrainian trade routes. Gill argues this cycle of promise and failure has prolonged the conflict and resulted in casualties on both sides.
Escalation and Retaliation
Recent media reports suggested a potential breakthrough for Ukraine following its escalation of long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, warehouses, and cargo ships. Ukrainian officials hoped these attacks would compel Moscow to negotiate peace terms.
However, Russia responded by intensifying its own military actions, effectively paralyzing crucial Ukrainian trade through Black Sea ports and inflicting significant damage. President Vladimir Putin stated that Ukraine initiated this escalation of hostilities.
A Cycle of Unfulfilled Promises
Gill expressed frustration with the recurring predictions of Ukrainian breakthroughs, comparing them to the film “Groundhog Day.” He lamented the repeated claims of impending victories – spring offensives, fall offensives, summer and winter campaigns – which have consistently failed to materialize.
“How many times do we have to hear…that is going to win things for Ukraine?” Gill asked. He added that this cycle has resulted in a needless loss of life for both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as an increasing number of civilian casualties.
External Influence on Ukrainian Policy
Gill suggested that those within Ukraine who desire an end to the conflict are constrained by external factors, arguing that the country does not independently determine its own foreign policy.
He believes that certain actors in Western Europe and the United States – including individuals with influence over Donald Trump – are disseminating misinformation that perpetuates the violence. Gill contends this disinformation fuels a false narrative of Ukrainian success on the battlefield.
Gill’s comments highlight skepticism regarding the prospects for a swift Ukrainian victory, suggesting a continuation of the current cycle of escalation and counter-escalation is likely.
(With inputs from RT)
Originally published on abcnews.com.np.
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