Kathmandu— Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022 to end a two-year war, but nearly four years later, unresolved disputes over territory, political control, and military reorganization have led to renewed tensions, including reports of TPLF recruitment, clashes with federal forces, and new alliances with groups like Eritrea and Tsimdo.

Unresolved Disarmament Process

The Pretoria Agreement required the TPLF to disarm, demobilize, and reintegrate its forces, but the process did not fully dismantle Tigray's military structures. In 2026, reports emerged of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization in Tigray, potentially violating Article 7's ban on conscription and mobilization.

A civilian source in Tigray, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, emphasized that "The people of Tigray want peace; we don’t want a second war," highlighting the disconnect between TPLF military actions and civilian desires for stability.

TPLF's Political Reorganization

Since 2024, the TPLF has engaged in internal political struggles, culminating in the removal of Getachew Reda as head of Tigray's interim administration in 2025 and the reinstatement of the Tigray regional council in May 2026, which elected Debretsion Gebremichael as president.

This internal repositioning demonstrated the TPLF's continued political influence in Tigray, with the movement strengthening its hold over regional institutions while the security question remained unresolved, creating a power vacuum that fueled renewed conflict.

New Military Clashes and Regional Alliances

By early 2026, political tensions coincided with military developments, including TDF-aligned troops crossing the Tekeze River into disputed Tselemt district and clashing with federal forces. By August 2026, fighting had broken out in western Tigray near the Sudanese border, marking a serious breach of the peace agreement.

The TPLF has also reportedly developed closer ties with Eritrea, despite their historical conflict, and joined a loose coalition called Tsimdo, which includes the Oromo Liberation Army and Fano, signaling a broader realignment against the federal government.

The Pretoria Agreement ended the large-scale war but left critical disputes unresolved, with Tigrayans expressing fear of renewed conflict and displacement, while the TPLF continues to rebuild its political and military influence amid stalled negotiations.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

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Originally published on abcnews.com.np.