Kathmandu— With its mandate expiring at the end of the year, the future of UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, remains uncertain despite continued international and domestic support for maintaining peacekeepers in the region which has faced conflict since 2023. While discussions are underway regarding a potential replacement force, it is likely to be smaller in scale and contingent upon a regional agreement addressing core issues of Lebanese sovereignty, Israeli withdrawal, and non-interference from external actors like Iran; UNIFIL’s original mandate, established in 1978 during the Lebanese civil war, focused on monitoring, reporting, and assisting the Lebanese Armed Forces rather than forcibly disarming Hezbollah or compelling Israeli withdrawals.

Limited Enforcement Authority

UNIFIL was never intended to enforce UN Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, which called for the withdrawal of Israeli troops, deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River. Imad Salamey, a Lebanese political scientist, explained that expecting UNIFIL to forcibly disarm Hezbollah or compel Israel to withdraw goes beyond its original enforcement authority. The force’s role has largely been limited to monitoring and reporting on violations of the Blue Line – the de facto border between Israel, Lebanon, and the occupied Golan Heights.

Sidelined in Ceasefire Negotiations

Recent negotiations between Israel and Lebanon have further sidelined UNIFIL. A “framework agreement” reached on June 26 aims to establish “pilot zones” where Israeli troops would withdraw and the Lebanese Army would take control, overseeing Hezbollah’s disarmament – a process in which UNIFIL has no role. David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that this reflects shared skepticism from the US and Israel regarding UNIFIL's ability to keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon. He also pointed out that UNIFIL previously helped de-escalate standoffs between Lebanese and Israeli militaries, a function it is currently excluded from.

Potential Replacement Forces

As UNIFIL’s mandate nears its end, several states have expressed willingness to contribute peacekeepers to any future mission. One proposal involves the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) stepping in, though this would represent a significantly smaller force than UNIFIL, which peaked at 15,000 personnel and had approximately 7,000 as of June 2024. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has presented options to the Security Council ranging from 900 to 3,000 troops. Analysts remain uncertain about the final composition and effectiveness of any replacement force.

Need for a Political Settlement

Experts emphasize that a peacekeeping force alone cannot resolve the underlying issues driving instability in southern Lebanon. Salamey argues that replacing UNIFIL with another organization will make little difference without a broader political settlement addressing Hezbollah’s arms and Israel’s ongoing occupation. Wood warns that allowing a gap to emerge between the end of UNIFIL’s mandate and the establishment of a new force could create a security vacuum difficult to fill.

The future stability of southern Lebanon hinges on achieving a comprehensive political agreement, with any peacekeeping force serving as a supporting element rather than a standalone solution. The Security Council will need to address the potential for a security gap before UNIFIL’s mandate expires.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.