Kathmandu— As fighting continues in Ukraine, a surge in both Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities is escalating the conflict's impact on civilians and economies. Recent Russian ballistic missile attacks have resulted in record civilian casualties in Ukraine due to a shortage of interceptors, while Ukraine’s counteroffensive has focused on disrupting Russian logistics and damaging key infrastructure including fuel supplies and manufacturing sites. This dual-pronged assault is now raising concerns within Russia about the long-term economic and social consequences of the war.

Escalating Civilian Casualties in Ukraine

Russian missile attacks have caused a significant increase in civilian deaths in Ukrainian cities, particularly with limited air defense capabilities. On Tuesday, at least 10 people were killed in Pechenihy, and on Thursday, 15 died in Kyiv along with injuries reported in Zhytomyr and near the Moldovan border. The United Nations recorded a record 437 civilian deaths in July alone, a 30 percent increase from June. Ukraine has struggled to intercept ballistic missiles since the beginning of August due to depleted Patriot interceptor supplies, despite maintaining a high rate of success against cruise missiles and drones.

Ukraine's Disruptive Counterstrikes

Since June 25th, Ukraine has launched a campaign of mid-range strikes targeting Russian logistics and fuel/ammunition supplies. These efforts have resulted in territorial gains of 233 square kilometers this year. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces claim to have disabled 228 supply ships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, as well as destroying numerous power stations and gas nodes in Crimea. Strikes have also targeted relay antennas and radar stations used by Russia. Notably, Ukraine successfully hit a fuel terminal in the Kerch Strait, vital for supplying Crimea, and damaged an engine assembly workshop at the Progress Rocket and Space Centre near Moscow.

Economic Impact on Russia

Ukraine’s long-range strikes are deliberately aimed at undermining Russia's economic capacity to sustain the war. Attacks on oil refineries – including Ust-Luga, Taneco, and Perm – have significantly reduced petrol supply within Russia. Reports indicate that only 28 percent of gas stations across the country were able to provide fuel this week, with shortages even in Moscow, leading to instances of conflict among motorists. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged the issue, stating lower-grade fuel is being used and maintenance work will hopefully improve the situation.

Warnings of Russian Social Crisis

The economic strain caused by the war and Ukrainian strikes has prompted warnings from within Russia about potential social unrest. Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank, stated that losses from Ukrainian attacks are becoming “a significant macroeconomic barrier” to Russian growth and predicted an impending “social crisis.” He was subsequently removed from his position after making these comments. Reports also suggest Russians are withdrawing savings while businesses face pressure to contribute to the state defense budget.

Putin Acknowledges Damage, Allocates Funds

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes are causing damage but maintained an optimistic view of overall economic performance. He recently authorized $1.18 billion in aid for regional budgets, including $52 million for Crimea. Ukraine’s defense ministry estimates that each dollar spent on drone strikes inflicts five dollars worth of damage to the Russian economy.

The conflict continues with both sides escalating their attacks and focusing on critical infrastructure, raising concerns about further civilian casualties and economic disruption in the region.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.