Kathmandu— A surge in Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries has created widespread fuel shortages across Central Asia, prompting a scramble for gasoline and impacting nations heavily reliant on Russian supplies. The offensive, coupled with Russia’s refusal to engage in peace talks, is driving up prices, creating long lines at petrol stations, and even fueling cross-border smuggling as citizens seek access to dwindling resources. Countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, previously dependent on Russia for the vast majority of their fuel, are particularly vulnerable, while Kazakhstan grapples with increased domestic demand and attempts to curb illicit exports.

Russian Refinery Attacks Fuel Shortages

For much of this year, Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Russian oil refineries and fuel depots, stretching from annexed Crimea to Siberia. These attacks have resulted in significant damage and disruptions to Russia’s refining capacity, leading to substantial fuel shortages within the country. As Russians face hours-long queues and occasional confrontations at petrol stations, a phenomenon dubbed 'fuel tourism' has emerged, with drivers crossing into neighboring Kazakhstan to fill their tanks.

Kazakhstan Grapples With Increased Demand

The influx of Russian drivers seeking fuel has put significant strain on Kazakhstan’s resources. Despite being Central Asia’s most oil-rich nation, Kazakhstan has seen fuel prices rise by 15.6 percent this year. In late May, the government attempted to curb the outflow by banning petrol exports, but border guards continue to intercept numerous attempts at smuggling fuel back into Russia via canisters and makeshift tanks. Timur, a businessman in Almaty, described the situation as “total contraband along the border,” while acknowledging the difficulty of fully stopping the illicit trade.

Ripple Effects Across Central Asia

The shortages are being felt acutely by other Central Asian nations, particularly Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which historically relied on Russia for up to 90 percent of their petrol supplies. Galiya Ibragimova, a Central Asia expert with Carnegie Politika, noted that these countries “have been hurt the most.” Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, is struggling to maintain sustainable fuel supplies, while Tajikistan, though not a member, previously benefited from discounted Russian fuel as a form of political leverage. The closure of Russia’s Omsk refinery in early July further exacerbated the situation, prompting Kyrgyzstan to regulate prices and seek assistance from other ex-Soviet nations.

Seeking Alternative Supplies

Faced with dwindling supplies, Central Asian countries are actively seeking alternative sources of fuel. Tajikistan has signed a deal with Iran for 2.5 million tonnes of oil products and is collaborating with China National Petroleum Corporation to explore potential domestic reserves. Uzbekistan, while processing some of its own oil, is building strategic reserves to ensure sufficient supply during the fall and winter months. Some drivers in Uzbekistan are also switching to compressed natural gas as a more affordable alternative. However, regional governments acknowledge that finding new suppliers will be challenging given global price pressures, particularly those stemming from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

China's Electric Vehicle Boom

The fuel crisis is accelerating a pre-existing trend towards electric vehicles in Central Asia. Sales of Chinese-made electric cars have skyrocketed, with Kazakhstan experiencing a 36-fold increase between 2022 and 2025, according to the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. This shift presents an opportunity for China to further expand its influence in the region as demand for alternative transportation options grows.

Regional governments are continuing to explore long-term solutions to secure fuel supplies, including diversifying import sources and investing in domestic production. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing geopolitical factors potentially impacting future availability and prices.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.