Kathmandu— The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party classified as extremist by Saxony-Anhalt's domestic intelligence service, is projected to secure a decisive victory in Sunday's regional election, potentially becoming the first far-right party to lead a German state government since World War II, with its candidate Ulrich Siegmund expected to win over 40% of the vote.

Historic Political Shift

The AfD's projected victory in Saxony-Anhalt marks a significant turning point in German politics, as the party has long been labeled as extremist by authorities. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's leading candidate, was previously a CDU member and has been dubbed 'Germany's most dangerous man' by Der Spiegel. The party's platform, titled 'The Country First,' calls for abolishing asylum rights, mass deportations, and banning the Antifa movement, while also seeking to reverse Germany's shift toward renewable energy.

The conservative CDU, which has dominated regional politics for decades, is trailing at just over 20% in polls, with the Left Party at 12% and Social Democrats at 7%. Analysts note that the AfD's rise reflects deepening regional divides between eastern Germany and Berlin's political establishment, with Saxony-Anhalt's voters increasingly rejecting what they perceive as distant liberal governance.

Economic and Immigration Drivers

Voter motivations for supporting the AfD center on economic concerns and hardline immigration policies, according to interviews with supporters. Mario Jung, a 59-year-old banking clerk from Magdeburg, explained he switched from CDU to AfD because he believes former Chancellor Angela Merkel pushed the CDU too far left and that the AfD better represents his conservative economic views.

'All illegal immigrants, those whose applications have been denied, and criminal immigrants as well – they have to be deported; there is no question about it,' Jung stated. The AfD's campaign has successfully linked immigration policy to broader economic anxieties, with experts noting that concerns about immigration explain AfD support nearly 10 times more than economic hardship alone, according to a study by Martin Schroder and his team.

Regional Discontent and Structural Challenges

Eastern German states, including Saxony-Anhalt, have long struggled with economic decline following reunification, featuring job shortages, healthcare deficits, and depopulation. These structural challenges have fueled voter frustration with Berlin's governance, with many eastern Germans feeling neglected by liberal elites in the capital.

Thomas Biebricher, a professor at Goethe University Frankfurt, attributes the AfD's success to widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government and economic conditions. He notes that the party has effectively positioned itself as a voice for those feeling abandoned by mainstream politics, while also attracting support from segments of the capitalist class advocating for lower taxes and reduced state intervention.

The election results will determine whether the AfD can form a government in Saxony-Anhalt, with implications for Germany's political landscape and its international reputation, as the party's policies on immigration and energy could reshape regional governance.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.