Kathmandu— Following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syria and Russia have finalized a memorandum of understanding regarding Moscow’s Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base. The agreement, announced by Damascus on Sunday after 18 months of negotiations, will see Syria assume control of civilian infrastructure at the bases while transforming military facilities into joint Russian-Syrian training centers. Analysts suggest this pragmatic shift reflects both countries' need for continued cooperation despite past conflicts, allowing Syria to reclaim sovereignty and Russia to maintain a strategic foothold in the region.

Shifting Alliances and Strategic Interests

The Syrian-Russian accord marks a significant departure from the bases’ previous role supporting al-Assad during the country's 14-year civil war. While Russia provided vital military support that helped turn the tide in favor of the former government, it did not intervene to prevent Ahmed al-Sharaa’s advance on Damascus which led to Assad fleeing to Russia and being granted asylum. The new agreement allows Syria to regain control over strategically important facilities while Moscow preserves a presence in a country where it has invested heavily for decades.

Pragmatism Over Past Grievances

Despite fighting against Russian-backed forces during the civil war, President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government quickly initiated negotiations to maintain a Russian presence after taking power. Ruslan Trad, a political analyst at the Atlantic Council, explained this decision reflects a realist approach: “This confirms the classic realist maxim that in politics there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.” Al-Sharaa's government has also sought improved relations with Western powers, but determined that severing ties with Russia would be too costly given Moscow’s control over Assad’s asylum, Syrian debt, reconstruction contracts, and its veto power on the UN Security Council.

Mutual Dependence and Future Cooperation

Alexey Muraviev, a senior research fellow at Edith Cowan University, emphasized the mutual benefits of the agreement. “The agreement between Russia and the Syrian government indicates that both countries need each other,” he said, adding that Damascus is likely “not interested in terminating its prolonged relationship with Russia.” Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, highlighted Syria’s reliance on Russian technology and cooperation, noting a long history of military and technical ties. Both sides began negotiations shortly after Assad's ouster, even while Russian jets were still targeting al-Sharaa’s forces.

Balancing Regional Powers

The agreement also allows Syria to resist external pressure and maintain a multi-vectoral foreign policy. Muraviev noted that Western and regional actors had attempted to push the new Syrian regime to terminate Russia's presence, but Damascus resisted this pressure. By maintaining ties with Russia, Syria can potentially use it as a bargaining chip in its dealings with other major powers, while also remaining open to developing strategic links with the US, Turkey, and Israel.

The transition of facilities is expected to be completed within three months, though Moscow has yet to officially comment on the deal. The agreement signals a new phase in Syrian-Russian relations, potentially paving the way for increased cooperation while allowing Syria to assert greater sovereignty.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.