Kathmandu— Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) initially forecasted below-normal monsoon rainfall for parts of the southern and western regions of the country, citing the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean as a contributing factor; however, data collected through August 6 reveals that the nation has received 92.1% of its historical average rainfall, prompting experts to suggest El Niño’s impact has been limited thus far.

Regional Rainfall Variations

The monsoon season has presented a varied picture across Nepal, with significant differences in precipitation levels between provinces and geographical areas. Madhes Province experienced the lowest relative rainfall, receiving only 81.9% of its normal amount, while the Tarai region of Koshi Province recorded just 76%. Conversely, Sudurpaschim and Karnali Provinces have seen near-normal patterns, registering 98.6% and 97.5% of their typical precipitation respectively.

Localized Heavy Rainfall

Despite the overall shortfall in rainfall across much of Nepal, certain hilly and mountainous areas have experienced exceptionally heavy downpours. The station at Num in Koshi Province recorded a substantial 1,567 mm of rainfall, while Malepatan in Pokhara registered 1,379.2 mm during the period examined. This localized intensity highlights the uneven distribution of monsoon precipitation within the country.

El Niño’s Limited Impact

Climate analysts suggest that while El Niño is a significant global factor influencing monsoon patterns, its effect on Nepal has been less pronounced than initially anticipated. Ngmindra Dahal, a climate analyst, explained that El Niño's primary impact stems from temperature changes affecting moisture and wind patterns, with effects on the monsoon cycle being tertiary. He noted that observations from previous El Niño years suggest weaker impacts in Nepal’s mountainous regions, a pattern consistent with this year’s data. “We are not hearing as much about drought now,” Dahal said, adding that while rainfall is lower in the Tarai, the hills have continued to receive adequate precipitation.

Current Outlook and Future Projections

Experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions about the entire monsoon season at this stage. Barun Paudel, a senior meteorologist at DHM, stated that El Niño can weaken monsoon winds and reduce rainfall, but a final assessment of its impact will only be possible after the monsoon concludes. Madhukar Adhikari noted regional variations in rainfall, with some areas experiencing deficits while others have received sufficient precipitation for planting rice, though localized dry conditions persist.

The DHM continues to monitor the situation closely as the monsoon season progresses, and a comprehensive evaluation of El Niño’s influence will be conducted following its conclusion.

(With inputs from RN)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.