Kathmandu— Oil flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while a recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran was in effect, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. Approximately 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf during the 60-day period covered by the MoU, averaging 6.1 million barrels per day—a substantial increase from the 2.3 million bpd exported prior to the agreement’s signing on June 17th. However, these volumes still fell far short of pre-war levels, and the MoU expired Monday without a lasting peace deal amid ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the region.

Increased Oil Transit During Agreement

Kpler data indicates that oil flows saw a marked increase during the period of the US-Iran MoU. The 374 million barrels exported represent a significant jump from the average of 2.3 million bpd seen in the months leading up to the agreement. While this boost was considerable, it only reached approximately 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that typically transited the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2025.

Flows Diminished Towards Expiration

The surge in oil flows wasn’t consistent throughout the MoU's duration. According to Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler, more than half of the shipments occurred within the first three weeks of the agreement. “By the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint,” he said, suggesting a decline in activity as the MoU neared its expiration.

Attacks on Shipping Continue

The expiration of the MoU coincided with continued attacks on commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO Operations Centre reported five such attacks within the past week, including an incident off Oman on Tuesday that resulted in the death of one seafarer aboard the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity. INTERCARGO, a trade association, emphasized that “seafarers are civilians and must never become targets or collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts.” At least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since late February.

Market Response and Future Outlook

Oil prices saw a slight increase on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising to $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT. However, analysts anticipate further declines in oil flows due to the stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, stated that markets are not convinced by optimistic assessments regarding the security of passage through the Strait. “Until there is clearer evidence of sustained, safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, confidence among operators is likely to stay low and volumes are unlikely to recover meaningfully,” he said.

The expiration of the MoU leaves the future of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, with ongoing security concerns continuing to impact global energy supply chains.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.