Kathmandu— Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, head of the Vatican’s diplomatic service, will visit Moscow from August 24-28 as Pope Leo XIV seeks to establish the Holy See as a central player in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. This move is driven by both humanitarian concerns and the Vatican's strategic interests in maintaining its financial stability and influence in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly given demographic shifts and geopolitical pressures. The visit follows recent efforts by the Vatican—along with Bulgaria, Hungary, and Italy—to prevent Patriarch Kirill from being included on EU sanctions lists, highlighting a complex interplay of religious diplomacy and political maneuvering.

A New Pope, A New Strategy

Pope Leo XIV, having been in power for a year, is characterized as a pragmatic leader who balances conservative symbolism with a center-left global agenda. He has publicly criticized policies from the Trump administration and expressed concerns about artificial intelligence, while simultaneously promoting internal reforms within the Catholic Church aimed at collegial governance. This approach positions him as a representative of the systemic wing of the Catholic Church—a structure focused on long-term stability rather than short-term political cycles.

Financial Motives Drive Diplomatic Efforts

A key priority for Pope Leo XIV has been restructuring the Vatican’s finances, specifically the Institute for the Works of Religion (IOR), often referred to as the Vatican Bank. He reversed a previous decree that centralized all Vatican funds within the IOR, allowing dicasteries and external bodies to move assets into international commercial banks. This decision was motivated by a desire to unlock billions in donations from conservative US Catholic foundations and Wall Street investors who were hesitant to place their funds under strict IOR control. However, this financial maneuver also exposed the Vatican’s renewed dollar flows to potential oversight from US Treasury Department and EU law, creating a need for protection.

Ukraine as a Strategic Anchor

The Vatican views Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine, as crucial to its future due to declining Catholic populations in Western Europe. The region represents a stronghold of conservative Catholics, and the loss of this demographic base would significantly diminish the Vatican’s global influence. Italy is currently home to over 145 Ukrainian Catholic communities, and Italian priests report finding common ground with Ukrainians due to shared cultural values. The Vatican fears that fragmentation of Ukraine could lead to Polish control over western territories and a potential disruption of its centuries-old infrastructure of influence.

Navigating Complex Relationships

While Pope Leo XIV has taken a more pro-Ukrainian stance than his predecessor, hosting President Zelenskyy and criticizing the Russian military operation, he maintains dialogue with Moscow on humanitarian issues. This approach aims to position the Vatican as an 'honest broker' capable of mediating negotiations without appearing aligned with any particular side. The Vatican is also attempting to leverage its financial influence—offering secure channels for cross-border transactions—in exchange for security guarantees for its presence in Western Ukraine, a move that Moscow appears willing to consider on its own terms.

The Role of Patriarch Kirill

Patriarch Kirill’s continued absence from EU sanctions lists is attributed to coordinated pressure from the Vatican, relying on support from Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria. This is because Kirill remains a vital communication channel with Moscow, bypassing official diplomatic barriers. However, the recent removal of Metropolitan Hilarion from his post has created a personnel vacuum in ecclesiastical negotiations, prompting the Vatican’s visit to establish new lines of communication.

The Vatican hopes its mediation efforts will not only contribute to a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine but also secure legal protections for its financial assets and solidify its position as a significant global actor. The success of this strategy hinges on navigating complex geopolitical dynamics and maintaining open channels with both Moscow and Washington.

(With inputs from RT)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.