Kathmandu— Iranians are preparing for increased economic hardship as the United States prepares to announce a new wave of sanctions targeting the country’s economy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to unveil the measures on Monday, with President Donald Trump warning of an “economic D-Day” aimed at collapsing the Iranian government. While analysts believe the penalties are unlikely to fundamentally alter Iran's behavior, they will exacerbate existing economic difficulties for average Iranians and could escalate regional tensions.

Escalating Economic Warfare

The US has pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran since 2018, following its withdrawal from the multinational nuclear deal. This has led to the reimposition of sanctions that had previously been lifted in exchange for verified limitations on Iran’s nuclear program. Washington now intends to expand these penalties by targeting banks, oil buyers, shipping companies, and even governments facilitating trade with Iran through secondary sanctions. Trump claimed on Monday that Iran is “completely collapsing,” signaling a continued commitment to this strategy.

Iran's Sanctions Evasion Tactics

Despite the intense pressure, Iran has developed sophisticated methods for circumventing US sanctions. These include utilizing a shadow tanker fleet, conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers, establishing shell companies, and employing alternative payment and barter systems. While a US naval blockade has disrupted some Iranian shipping through its southern ports – redirecting 70 commercial vessels, disabling three, and boarding two as of Sunday – Iran’s extensive land borders, railway lines, and access to the Caspian Sea provide alternative routes for trade.

Regional Alliances and Economic Lifelines

Iran is increasingly relying on economic partnerships with China, Russia, and other nations to mitigate the impact of sanctions. Trade with these countries has expanded in recent years, utilizing local currencies, barter arrangements, and intermediaries. Umud Shokri, an energy strategist at George Mason University, noted that Iran “has learned how to survive under pressure, although survival is not the same as avoiding economic damage.” China, in particular, represents a crucial lifeline for Tehran due to its demand for Iranian oil, though even Beijing has limits on its willingness to risk US financial repercussions. China’s Foreign Ministry stated Monday that sanctions and pressure will only escalate tensions.

Defiant Rhetoric and Military Posturing

Senior Iranian military commanders have responded defiantly to the prospect of further sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned any countries supporting the new US measures would be considered enemies of Tehran. Army chief Amir Hatami stated that Iranian forces are prepared to “fight for 10-20 generations” if necessary, and vowed to respond with a “language of force.” The Persian Gulf Strait Authority has also outlined planned actions against ships in the vital waterway.

Domestic Economic Strain

The escalating economic pressure is already manifesting in domestic challenges within Iran. The Iranian rial reached a new all-time low on Monday, trading at 2.03 million rials against the US dollar, eroding purchasing power for ordinary citizens. Regular blackouts plague cities across the country, and the government is implementing austerity measures as it struggles to cope with dwindling revenues.

While Iran continues to seek ways to circumvent sanctions through regional partnerships and alternative trade routes, the new US economic measures are expected to further exacerbate existing economic difficulties within the country.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.