Kathmandu— The United States unveiled a new round of economic sanctions targeting Iran and associated global entities on Monday, dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast,” in an attempt to compel Tehran to negotiate over its nuclear program and regional actions. The move follows six months of escalating tensions and military operations that have yielded limited impact, leading experts to suggest the Trump administration is shifting tactics due to stalled progress. While officials hope the sanctions will force Iran back to the negotiating table, analysts believe they are unlikely to achieve this goal and may instead exacerbate economic hardship for ordinary Iranians.

Military Efforts Yield Limited Gains

Nearly six months into its conflict with Iran, the US has seen little strategic impact from its military operations. According to experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, crucial munitions stocks have been depleted, forcing a redirection of resources away from other global priorities like China. The USS George Washington aircraft carrier was dispatched from Japan to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf, with sailors serving longer than planned due to the ongoing conflict. Furthermore, key US bases in the region have sustained damage or become unsafe for use, disrupting supply lines.

Economic Pressure as a Last Resort

The shift towards economic sanctions is viewed by many analysts as an admission of failure of the initial military strategy. Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that the “economic D-Day” declaration underscores the war’s inability to force Iran's surrender or achieve Washington’s political objectives. Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), noted the military mismatch between the US and Iran, stating, “The US caused a lot of destruction with its munitions, but so too did Iran with its missiles and drones.”

Sanctions Face Practical Limitations

While the US sanctioned 60 individuals and entities linked to Iranian business dealings, it notably avoided targeting major Chinese banks that facilitate oil trade. This reluctance stems from concerns about disrupting the global financial system, as acknowledged by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who questioned, “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” At least 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports reach China, providing Tehran with significant revenue. Experts believe that fully cutting off this trade would require a direct confrontation with China, something the US appears unwilling to pursue.

Impact on Iranian People and Potential for Escalation

Analysts predict the new sanctions will primarily impact ordinary Iranians, exacerbating existing economic hardships like medicine shortages and rising fuel prices. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute pointed out that previous attempts to squeeze Iran economically have historically led to escalation, such as attacks by Houthi forces on tankers and oilfields in Saudi Arabia during 2019. He believes that rather than capitulate, Iran is more likely to retaliate if pushed too far. The Center for International Policy’s Mortazavi added that years of maximum pressure have demonstrated that economic hardship does not automatically translate into political concessions.

Political Considerations in Washington

With US midterm elections approaching, Tehran appears to be calculating that the Trump administration will seek to avoid further conflict. According to George Washington University’s Sina Azodi, Iran is likely to “weather the storm” and wait for a more favorable offer from Washington. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed low approval ratings for both the war itself (31%) and President Trump's performance (33%), adding further political pressure on the administration.

The effectiveness of these new sanctions remains to be seen, but experts suggest they are unlikely to fundamentally alter Iran’s calculations in the short term. The situation continues to evolve as both sides assess their options and navigate a complex geopolitical landscape.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.