Kathmandu— For the first time in human history, global fertility rates may have dropped below replacement level, according to a new study warning of potential population decline within roughly one generation. The paper, “Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World,” highlights that prolonged low fertility could shrink workforces, rapidly age societies, and strain economies and welfare systems worldwide. Researchers estimate the world may have recently crossed the threshold where births no longer outpace deaths, with significant implications for global economic growth and social stability.

Declining Fertility Rates

The analysis, covering 236 countries and territories from 1950 to 2023, found that fertility rates are declining in 219 of them. On average, nations have experienced a loss of approximately 0.062 births per woman annually, with little indication this trend is slowing down. While the global population continues to grow for now due to large generations still having children, researchers predict it will peak around 9 billion in 2056 before beginning a decline.

Global Spread of Low Birth Rates

This trend extends beyond traditionally wealthy nations; several developing countries are experiencing particularly low fertility rates. In 2025, estimates place Thailand at just 0.87 births per woman, Colombia at 1.01, Iran at 1.35, and Brazil at 1.52. The study emphasizes that there isn’t a single explanation for these falling birth rates; factors like housing costs, economic insecurity, access to contraception, and evolving social norms all likely contribute.

Economic Consequences Projected

The looming population decline carries potentially far-reaching economic consequences. Smaller generations translate to fewer workers supporting growing elderly populations, placing strain on pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and public finances while simultaneously slowing overall growth. Researchers estimate that in the US, even with 2% annual productivity growth, a 0.5% contraction in the workforce could reduce long-term GDP growth to roughly 1.5%.

Shifting UN Forecasts

The United Nations has also revised its demographic forecasts downward over the past decade. In 2015, the organization projected a population exceeding 11.2 billion by 2100 with no peak in sight. However, its 2024 revision now anticipates a peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, followed by a slight decline to approximately 10.2 billion by 2100. The world’s population currently stands at roughly 8.3 billion after surpassing 8 billion in 2022.

Elon Musk, who has repeatedly voiced concerns about declining birth rates and their potential impact on civilization, reacted to the study's findings online. Russia is also actively addressing its own demographic challenges through financial incentives and social programs aimed at encouraging larger families.

(With inputs from RT)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.