Kathmandu— Sudan’s war is undergoing a notable shift as the Sudanese armed forces (SAF) secure advances in North Kordofan state, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) experience increasing defections, and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launches a political track alongside continued military operations. These developments—military pressure, internal fractures within the RSF, and outreach for dialogue—indicate that battlefield events are beginning to influence Sudan’s political landscape. While fighting continues across multiple regions, these changes suggest a potential reshaping of the conflict's trajectory and future negotiations.

Army Advances Secure Key Supply Route

The SAF has achieved its most recent gains in North Kordofan, a central state connecting Khartoum with western Sudan. In late July, the army announced the recapture of key locations including Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh, and Umm Sayala. These advances secured the vital Exports Road, linking Khartoum through Omdurman to el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. While not controlling the entire Kordofan region, this control strengthens the army’s position and disrupts RSF supply lines, with ongoing efforts to further cut off those routes across Kordofan, Darfur, and the Blue Nile region.

RSF Faces Growing Internal Challenges

Coinciding with military pressure, the RSF is experiencing a surge in defections. On August 20th, approximately 318 individuals, including officers, joined SAF ranks, arriving in Northern state before moving to Omdurman. Additional groups from Kordofan and Khartoum, totaling over 270 people—including field commanders—surrendered to the army in the Bara area. Analysts link these defections to battlefield developments, internal RSF issues, social dynamics, and the army’s disruption of supply lines, though they caution that this does not necessarily signal a complete collapse of the organization. If the trend continues, it could significantly weaken the RSF's cohesion.

Al-Burhan Pursues Political Dialogue Alongside Military Campaign

General al-Burhan announced on August 15th a plan to provide immunity and legal guarantees to participants in a national dialogue managed by an independent body. Criminal proceedings against those involved would be suspended, though rights of complainants would remain protected. He stated the initiative stemmed from Sudanese proposals for dialogue and emphasized that the state would not dictate its agenda. However, al-Burhan clarified this is not a cessation of military action, stating he will not accept peace terms allowing RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) to gain power, nor a truce enabling RSF reorganization. He insists the fighting will continue until the ‘rebellion’ ends and that the army remains open to just peace talks excluding the RSF.

Government Signals Military Resolution as Primary Path

Malik Agar, deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, reinforced the government's stance in a recent interview. He stated that military resolution is the current path unless credible negotiation conditions emerge, specifically requiring RSF withdrawal from cities before talks can begin. Agar stressed continued openness to initiatives preserving Sudan’s unity and institutions. In another interview, he predicted an eventual army victory but emphasized negotiations would ultimately end the conflict, attributing Sudan's crisis to systemic weaknesses in state governance and political elite failures.

Shifting Balance of Power

The SAF’s gains in North Kordofan, coupled with RSF defections, are altering the dynamics of the conflict. While the wider battlefield remains contested, these developments suggest a potential shift in the conditions for future negotiations. For al-Burhan, continued military pressure could provide greater leverage in shaping the political process and determining who participates. Conversely, the RSF faces the challenge of preventing internal cohesion from eroding under sustained military pressure.

The recent shifts do not guarantee a decisive victory for either side but indicate a changing landscape where battlefield developments may increasingly dictate the terms of Sudan’s next political phase.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.