Kathmandu— More than 23 weeks into the conflict with Iran, United States President Donald Trump has signaled a shift in strategy, opting to intensify economic pressure on Tehran rather than pursue further military action as he previously threatened. Shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by Iranian forces while a U.S. naval blockade constricts Iranian ports, though talks between Iran and Oman regarding management of the waterway are reportedly progressing. Despite claiming “only semi-negotiating” with Iran, Trump is now focusing on crippling Iran’s economy, citing financial woes and the impact of a naval blockade implemented in April. The change comes as domestic approval of the war wanes and concerns grow over U.S. munitions stockpiles.

Economic Warfare Takes Center Stage

Trump stated that Iran is currently in “very bad shape” financially, pointing to high inflation and difficulties paying its military personnel. He attributes this to the ongoing US naval blockade, which aims to reduce Iranian oil exports – estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day – and decrease revenue. Trump also claims falling oil prices have mitigated the economic impact on American consumers despite the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” he said, adding that the situation is akin to a chess game.

Naval Blockade Impacts Iranian Economy

The U.S. military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) reported redirecting 53 commercial vessels, boarding two, and disabling another two as part of the naval blockade. Iranian authorities acknowledge near-zero crude oil exports due to these restrictions, exacerbating existing economic problems stemming from domestic issues, mismanagement, and years of sanctions. Tehran has requested compensation for damage to its infrastructure sustained during the conflict as a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Munitions Concerns and Domestic Pressure

Reports suggest the U.S. is facing potential shortages in munitions due to conflicts in both the Middle East and Ukraine. General Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly cautioned that dwindling air defence interceptors could hinder the ability to protect forces and allies. However, a Pentagon official asserted to Al Jazeera that the U.S. possesses “sufficient munitions for the task at hand.”

Domestically, Trump faces growing unpopularity regarding the war, particularly as he seeks to defend Republican congressional majorities in upcoming midterm elections. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated only 35 percent of Americans approve of the conflict, and voters now slightly favour Democrats over Republicans on handling war and terrorism – a reversal from previous polling data.

Experts Question Strategy’s Effectiveness

Mehran Kamrava, professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, expressed skepticism about the success of Washington’s economic pressure campaign. He noted that Iran is attempting to leverage its influence over Gulf countries—Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—to pressure the U.S. into negotiations. “Tehran is under tremendous economic pressure, but we need to bear in mind that Iran’s political system is ultimately a very repressive one,” Kamrava said. “They want to stay in power, so I’m not sure if this tactic is going to work at this point.” He also highlighted the shifting goals of the U.S., initially focused on preventing nuclear development and regime change, but now seemingly prioritizing other demands.

Stalled Negotiations and Shifting Goals

The US and Israel have repeatedly altered their objectives since initiating the conflict with the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February. While an initial memorandum of understanding (MoU) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and initiate 60-day negotiations fell apart due to disagreements over management of the waterway, it did outline potential sanctions relief and a reconstruction fund for Iran. However, it lacked specific commitments regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program or support for regional armed groups, suggesting a diminished U.S. focus on regime change.

Negotiations between the US and Iran remain slow-moving, with neither side willing to make initial concessions. The effectiveness of the current economic pressure strategy remains uncertain as both countries continue to pursue their objectives.

(With inputs from Al Jazeera)

Originally published on abcnews.com.np.