Falgun : The Nepali Congress (NC) has internally assessed that it will win around 50 seats in the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) constituencies and secure over 30 lakh votes in the proportional representation (PR) category in the upcoming House of Representatives election on Falgun 21, 2082 (March 5, 2026). This projection is based on reports collected by the party’s election mobilization committee, led by Vice-President Bishwa Prakash Sharma, through 22 dedicated surveyors and informally through more than 400 activists across the country.
FPTP Internal Assessment (Where Congress Claims to Be Leading)
Congress has fielded candidates in all 165 constituencies. According to its internal reports, the party is currently ahead in 58 constituencies, though there is contradiction in 8–10 seats. The final report is expected by Falgun 17, and the party estimates it will not fall below 50 seats.
Province-wise Breakdown (Congress’s Claimed Leads):
| Province | Total Seats | Congress Ahead | Key Constituencies (Examples) | Notes / ABC News Ground Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koshi | 28 | 11 | Sunsari 2, Udayapur 1, Jhapa 1, Morang 1,2,3,6, Ilam 1, Solukhumbu, Okhaldhunga | ABC ground: Congress not leading in any Jhapa seat; only Morang 3; hill districts only Ilam 1, Okhaldhunga, Udayapur 1 show lead. |
| Madhesh | 32 | 13 | Sarlahi 1,4; Mahottari 1; Dhanusha 3,4; Rautahat 1,2; Saptari 1,4; Parsa 2; Siraha 2; Bara 1 | ABC ground: Bara 1, Dhanusha 4, Mahottari 1 – UML ahead; Parsa 2,3,4 – NC ahead, but RSP claims strong in Parsa 2. |
| Bagmati | 33 | 11 | Makwanpur 1, Rasuwa, Nuwakot 1, Kavre 2, Dhading 2, Lalitpur 1, Kathmandu 1,2,4,5,10 | ABC ground: Only Kathmandu 1,4,5 clearly ahead; Nuwakot 1 behind, Kavre 2 ahead. |
| Gandaki | 18 | 6 | Manang, Mustang, Syangja 1, Baglung 1, Tanahun 1, Nawalpur 1 | ABC ground: Tanahun 2 NC ahead, Tanahun 1 behind; Nawalpur 1 NC far behind – RSP & UML leading. |
| Lumbini | 26 | 9 | Dang 1, Rupandehi 2,5; Bardiya 1,2; Kapilvastu 2; Pyuthan, Arghakhanchi | ABC ground: Rupandehi 2 & 5 behind; Nawalparasi 2 NC ahead; Banke – NC not leading anywhere; Bardiya 2 behind. |
| Karnali | 10 | 3 | Humla, Surkhet 1, Jajarkot | ABC ground: Matches NC claims in most areas. |
| Sudurpashchim | 16 | 6 | Kailali 5, Kanchanpur 2, Dadeldhura, Baitadi, Doti, Bajura | ABC ground: Kailali 5 behind; Kanchanpur 2 behind, but 3 ahead. |
Competitor Leads (Per Congress Internal Report)
- RSP: Ahead in 42 constituencies
- UML: Ahead in 33 constituencies
- Maoist Centre: Ahead in 12 constituencies
- JSP: Ahead in 4 constituencies
- Remaining 24 constituencies: Tight race between major parties
PR Vote Target
- 2079 election: 27.15 lakh votes (25.71%)
- This time target: 30–33 lakh votes (28–30% range) The party believes Gagan Thapa’s leadership after the special convention has retained past votes and added new ones. However, breaking the historical record (37%+) is considered impossible; even 30 lakh will be challenging if last-week voter mobilization fails.
Congress Leadership Claims
- Vice-President Bishwa Prakash Sharma: “There is no doubt Nepali Congress will emerge as the largest party and decisive force. We are heading toward the ‘hundred climb’ (saya ko ukali), not just ‘saya paar’.”
ABC Ground Report & Overall Assessment
- Positive for Congress: Gagan Thapa’s leadership has attracted reformist and youth voters in some pockets. Fielding in all 165 seats gives broader competition than past alliances. Internal surveys show a realistic base for 50+ seats.
- Major Challenges:
- RSP’s youth wave and UML’s organizational strength are leading in 42 and 33 seats respectively (per Congress’s own report).
- Ground reporting (ABC) shows significant overestimation in Koshi (Jhapa/Morang), Lumbini (Rupandehi/Banke/Bardiya), and parts of Bagmati/Sudurpashchim.
- PR target of 30 lakh looks very difficult; ABC ground observation suggests Congress is struggling to reach even 24–26% PR vote share.
- Final internal report due Falgun 17 – real picture will emerge then.
Congress is projecting itself as the largest party, but RSP’s momentum among youth and UML’s hill strongholds are creating a very tight race. The final outcome will depend heavily on voter turnout and last-week mobilization on Falgun 21.
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